"...THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2 HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. DYNAMICAL
MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER THERE IS
A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MORE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE...
THE ECMWF FORECAST IS ABOUT 300 N MI EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION AT DAY
3. SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. THIS REQUIRES AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS
GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST..."
I highlighted the part that means nobody is really sure what happens in two days, which is the time this critter will find some place to go ashore.
What happens? The local Emergency Management officials start preparing to send everyone down the highway, where they spend lots of money, find they're the prey of thieving hotel owners, criminals, unscrupulous businesses and face the possibility of being hit by a tornado in the small town they end up hundreds of miles from the coast.
You can't win. Everyone is doomed.
I don't think it hits Michigan.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteI don't think I could take the endless hours of analysis if it did.
Let's hope that it would change direction or that its a fluke. No one likes to experience another hurricane. Its a devastating life experience.
ReplyDeletegift baskets overseas