I've played by the rules during my adult life. The rules aren't exaclty written down but they can be summarized as contributing. Contributing can mean many things but it's more of a frame of mind; You take care of yourself, help when you can and do everything you can to not be a burden. There is no arrogance and there is no idea anyone owes more - even if they have more than others.
The rules should apply to government. Besides the written rules, such as the Constitution, there should be a determined effort by all in the government to be stewards of the resources of the citizens and never take them for granted. I'm not finding much of this any longer.
There's an entitlement mind-set in this country that I don't like: Since others have more, they should contribute to those that don't. In fact, those that don't feel they shouldn't have to do anything. "Give me what's mine. It's my right. I deserve to have something, whether I do anything or not". It's selfish and the demands have reached the point the resentment is palpable. Not only is there resentment by those who think they're owed something, there's resentment by those who produce daily and have substantial amounts of what they make taken, with the threat of bankruptcy, or even jail, if they disagree.
The main ingredient in this entire mess is the government. For some reason, government employees decided they are more capable of allocating our personal resources than we are. They take these resources and do what they want. Give positions with high salaries to people as favors. Give money for bridges, or tunnels that cost billions, yet those that pay for them will never use them. Take "fact finding trips" or vacations on the public dime, while some poor sucker in the middle of the country works a side job to help pay the car note. The arrogance is insulting and the lack of concern has reached the point where few are willing to allow this to continue. They are horrified that not only have the stewards abused their power, they've indebted generations through their folly. Meanwhile, the entitlement class lives in their new apartments, lie about their circumstance and wait for the bus on election day.
This brings me to the "Tea Party" I've watched the media, politicians and anyone else looking for control try to describe this movement. Who is the leader? Who is in the Tea Party? The derision and insulting patronization is a daily diatribe of useless conjecture. It's as though they don't want to admit they've created a small segment of society that has lost all touch with those that are the backbone of this nation. Their daily travels only expose them to those that are the same: totally unaware that the world doesn't revolve around capitols of states and Washington D.C.
The Tea Party are those that play by the rules, and expect their government - and all that take so much a penny from the government - to do the same. It's that simple and it's a philosophy that has been proven by time. Nothing is free and nobody that is able should be allowed to become a parasite on society. Nobody, even those elected to the highest positions, is royalty, or should act like royalty. In fact, they should be treated as they are: an employee. Misuse your position, and you are removed from the position. No retirement, no benefits and maybe some time in jail. Public servants should be held to a higher standard; they derive their resources from the private efforts of the individual, who's rights are never to be abused.
In case any politician, or bureaucrat still doesn't understand, I'll make it even simpler: you have betrayed the trust of the citizens of this country. Whether guilty by act, or association, you are grouped with those that most people in this country have decided are as unethical as the worst of snake oil salesmen. The lies, thievery, arrogance, and waste are your legacy and it's time you make ammends - or leave. There are no political parties, only politicians and bureaucrats who can't be trusted.
In Case You've Wondered
My blog is where my wandering thoughts are interspersed with stuff I made up. So, if while reading you find yourself confused about the context, don't feel alone. I get confused, too.
If you're here for the stories, I started another blog: scratchingforchange.blogspot.com
One other thing: sometimes I write words you refuse to use in front of children, or polite company, unless you have a flat tire, or hit your thumb with a hammer.
I don't use them to offend; I use them to embellish.
jescordwaineratgmail.com
Monday, September 5, 2011
Saturday, September 3, 2011
Making A Lift
"Making a lift" is a term used to describe using a crane to lift and set an object. The object can be anything and the size determines the size of the crane.
A few years ago, we had a job removing a large conveyor in an industrial facility. The conveyor had been out of use for a few decades and the facility had budgeted the money for demolition.
I had spent the better part of a day measuring the critter. I had taken measurements of the structural members and using the information to determine the weight. Since the conveyor was so old, nobody had any idea of the weight of some of the components. I used wags to determine some of the weights and added a few percent to cover my butt.
Demolition is an entirely different aspect of what I do. In a way, it's a little sad to destroy something I know someone had been proud of building. I know how I feel after finishing a project. Then again, I've been doing this long enough to see things I've built reach the point a little destruction is necessary.
Television likes to show huge building being dropped with shaped charges. The event is filmed, rerun in slow motion and a 30 minute show is played dramatizing the explosion. The tough, nasty, boring part of the process is never shown. Days are spent tediously removing things of value, such as copper, and there are many things that don't require dynamite to dismantle. These things aren't glamorous, but they are part of the process.
Initially, everyone involved with removing the conveyor had determined a large crane was required. My boss, and I, examined everything and decided there was another way. We could remove the conveyor in pieces with a 50 ton hydraulic rig. We were given a purchase order number, so we started the process.
We spent most of the week removing the upper end of the conveyor. It had easy access and was isolated from any live components of the facility. It wasn't an open area, so we still had to use oxygen/acetylene torches to whittle away at components. There were a few larger sections, but they were easy to rig and let to the ground.
At the end of the week, there was a large section remaining that required one lift. It spanned two support columns, so there was only so much that could be removed without sacrificing the integrity of the truss construction. We had removed cover, belts, piping and electrical conduits. What remained was tough to reach, was at the limit of our crane capacity, and would require careful coordination to make a safe lift.
On the morning we removed the section, welders started the day welding some "pad eyes", which are steel clips with holes for shackles. While they were doing this, I moved the crane into the small area that was the only place I could reach the conveyor. I had spent the day before measuring distances and heights. It wasn't the best of areas for access, but I knew the crane would fit, but we'd have to spend some time preparing it for the lift. I would be swinging the load over two buildings, process equipment, piping and electrical trays.
I drove the crane up the narrow area to where it would sit. After extending the outriggers, the crew started placing cribbing (hardwood blocks) to compensate for the uneven concrete and to displace the weight. The wasn't any room for uh-ohs, so we took our time to make sure it was right. After I leveled the crane, I ran the boom out to the position it would be for the lift. I checked the computer; I would have around 2000 pounds of wiggle for the lift - if my calculations were correct. Since I had put a 10 percent safety factor on the weight, I felt comfortable.
I spent a few minutes going over everything in my head. I remembered running the calculations and still felt comfortable, since what we had already removed pretty well verified what I determined. Still, I had a nagging feeling. Mr. Murphy is the ruler of demolition. Mistakes are always dealt with unmercifully.
There's another thing about demolition. It's not like lifting something from the ground and then placing it somewhere higher. When you start from the ground, you probably already know the weight and if it's not correct, the crane computer will immediately shut down the controls if the capacities are exceeded. That's great on the ground. In the air, with something that has all of the supports cut away, losing the controls is a butt clincher at best and a disaster at worst.
I lifted the lifting slings, with shackles, so they could attach the section to the block. We had determined the proper length after using a level to determine the angle of the conveyor and adjusting the lengths to compensate for the unequal distances. They screwed the shackles to the pad eyes and I started winching the main block to take up the slack. A burner, and helper, moved an 80 foot manlift to the upper end so they could cut the upper section away from the supports.
The burner that would signal the lift gave me the signal to start placing a bind on the cables. He stopped me, gave me a signal to adjust the boom, and then continued his signal to tighten the winch line. I watched the scale on the display panel. When we hit about half the determined weight, the burner was satisfied with the tension and signaled for me to stop. He, and the burner at the upper end, started cutting away the supports for the conveyor.
I watched as the molten steel, and slag, showered to to the ground. A helper watched for fires. We had covered the top of a motor control building with fire blankets to keep the roof safe. It would be unfortunate to cause a fire in a building that had a few dozen 480 volt motor controls. Such a disaster would shut down the facility and end our stay forever.
After a few minutes, the burner on the upper end eased his manlift away. The burner on the lower end soon signaled to slowly start winching the block. I slowly pulled the control. Movement by sight was imperceptible, but I knew the line was winching due to the "tell-tale" on the lever, which clicked every few seconds. I watched the scale. It crept higher and higher. At around 4000 lbs from the maximum weight I could handle, the burner signaled for me to stop. For a second I thought he might have needed to cut some more, but he leaned into the conveyor and started to push it sideways. It was free. It was now mine.
He signaled me to start lifting. I slowly lifted the conveyor as he threw the tag ropes to the ground. The burner on the upper end did the same. The crew on the ground caught the lines and started swinging the section to clear the supports.
After I was high enough with the load, the burner signaled me to start swinging. I started the slow swing to my left. As I was swinging the load, the crew slowly walked with the load to keep it under control. When I knew the conveyor was clear, I started slowly lowering the load. I had to clear the equipment and the last building.
I finally cleared the last building and now had the load behind the crane. I lowered it to the ground. As the cables started getting slack, a burner was on top removing the shackles. Before I could lift the cables completely clear, the crew was starting to whittle away the steel to sizes that would fit into the metal dumpsters. The worst was over.
I lifted the cables and started swinging back towards what remained of the conveyor. We had more to do and it was almost time for lunch. I glanced at the large empty hole that used to be a conveyor. After seeing it for so many years, it was a strange sight to see it gone.
A few years ago, we had a job removing a large conveyor in an industrial facility. The conveyor had been out of use for a few decades and the facility had budgeted the money for demolition.
I had spent the better part of a day measuring the critter. I had taken measurements of the structural members and using the information to determine the weight. Since the conveyor was so old, nobody had any idea of the weight of some of the components. I used wags to determine some of the weights and added a few percent to cover my butt.
Demolition is an entirely different aspect of what I do. In a way, it's a little sad to destroy something I know someone had been proud of building. I know how I feel after finishing a project. Then again, I've been doing this long enough to see things I've built reach the point a little destruction is necessary.
Television likes to show huge building being dropped with shaped charges. The event is filmed, rerun in slow motion and a 30 minute show is played dramatizing the explosion. The tough, nasty, boring part of the process is never shown. Days are spent tediously removing things of value, such as copper, and there are many things that don't require dynamite to dismantle. These things aren't glamorous, but they are part of the process.
Initially, everyone involved with removing the conveyor had determined a large crane was required. My boss, and I, examined everything and decided there was another way. We could remove the conveyor in pieces with a 50 ton hydraulic rig. We were given a purchase order number, so we started the process.
We spent most of the week removing the upper end of the conveyor. It had easy access and was isolated from any live components of the facility. It wasn't an open area, so we still had to use oxygen/acetylene torches to whittle away at components. There were a few larger sections, but they were easy to rig and let to the ground.
At the end of the week, there was a large section remaining that required one lift. It spanned two support columns, so there was only so much that could be removed without sacrificing the integrity of the truss construction. We had removed cover, belts, piping and electrical conduits. What remained was tough to reach, was at the limit of our crane capacity, and would require careful coordination to make a safe lift.
On the morning we removed the section, welders started the day welding some "pad eyes", which are steel clips with holes for shackles. While they were doing this, I moved the crane into the small area that was the only place I could reach the conveyor. I had spent the day before measuring distances and heights. It wasn't the best of areas for access, but I knew the crane would fit, but we'd have to spend some time preparing it for the lift. I would be swinging the load over two buildings, process equipment, piping and electrical trays.
I drove the crane up the narrow area to where it would sit. After extending the outriggers, the crew started placing cribbing (hardwood blocks) to compensate for the uneven concrete and to displace the weight. The wasn't any room for uh-ohs, so we took our time to make sure it was right. After I leveled the crane, I ran the boom out to the position it would be for the lift. I checked the computer; I would have around 2000 pounds of wiggle for the lift - if my calculations were correct. Since I had put a 10 percent safety factor on the weight, I felt comfortable.
I spent a few minutes going over everything in my head. I remembered running the calculations and still felt comfortable, since what we had already removed pretty well verified what I determined. Still, I had a nagging feeling. Mr. Murphy is the ruler of demolition. Mistakes are always dealt with unmercifully.
There's another thing about demolition. It's not like lifting something from the ground and then placing it somewhere higher. When you start from the ground, you probably already know the weight and if it's not correct, the crane computer will immediately shut down the controls if the capacities are exceeded. That's great on the ground. In the air, with something that has all of the supports cut away, losing the controls is a butt clincher at best and a disaster at worst.
I lifted the lifting slings, with shackles, so they could attach the section to the block. We had determined the proper length after using a level to determine the angle of the conveyor and adjusting the lengths to compensate for the unequal distances. They screwed the shackles to the pad eyes and I started winching the main block to take up the slack. A burner, and helper, moved an 80 foot manlift to the upper end so they could cut the upper section away from the supports.
The burner that would signal the lift gave me the signal to start placing a bind on the cables. He stopped me, gave me a signal to adjust the boom, and then continued his signal to tighten the winch line. I watched the scale on the display panel. When we hit about half the determined weight, the burner was satisfied with the tension and signaled for me to stop. He, and the burner at the upper end, started cutting away the supports for the conveyor.
I watched as the molten steel, and slag, showered to to the ground. A helper watched for fires. We had covered the top of a motor control building with fire blankets to keep the roof safe. It would be unfortunate to cause a fire in a building that had a few dozen 480 volt motor controls. Such a disaster would shut down the facility and end our stay forever.
After a few minutes, the burner on the upper end eased his manlift away. The burner on the lower end soon signaled to slowly start winching the block. I slowly pulled the control. Movement by sight was imperceptible, but I knew the line was winching due to the "tell-tale" on the lever, which clicked every few seconds. I watched the scale. It crept higher and higher. At around 4000 lbs from the maximum weight I could handle, the burner signaled for me to stop. For a second I thought he might have needed to cut some more, but he leaned into the conveyor and started to push it sideways. It was free. It was now mine.
He signaled me to start lifting. I slowly lifted the conveyor as he threw the tag ropes to the ground. The burner on the upper end did the same. The crew on the ground caught the lines and started swinging the section to clear the supports.
After I was high enough with the load, the burner signaled me to start swinging. I started the slow swing to my left. As I was swinging the load, the crew slowly walked with the load to keep it under control. When I knew the conveyor was clear, I started slowly lowering the load. I had to clear the equipment and the last building.
I finally cleared the last building and now had the load behind the crane. I lowered it to the ground. As the cables started getting slack, a burner was on top removing the shackles. Before I could lift the cables completely clear, the crew was starting to whittle away the steel to sizes that would fit into the metal dumpsters. The worst was over.
I lifted the cables and started swinging back towards what remained of the conveyor. We had more to do and it was almost time for lunch. I glanced at the large empty hole that used to be a conveyor. After seeing it for so many years, it was a strange sight to see it gone.
Today
Today started with a quick check of the tube to see about Lee, the current famous tropical media darling. There wasn't much to report from my side, which is west of the center. From the radar loops, it looked as Lee was almost onshore, which usually means rapid acceleration to the north and an end to the disturbance. Not this time.
Outside, it was in the mid 70's, which can only be described as pleasant. It's been in the lower 80's with high humidities. Since Lee was bringing drier air from the drought stricken areas, the influx of rain cooled dry air around the system made it almost seem like Fall.
There were heavy clouds to the east, but overhead there were only a few fast moving, wispy cumulus that had were producing an occasional mist. The wind was brisk, with gusts to around 25 mph. Mostly, the sky was clear and a deep blue.
I had some errands to run, so I looked at the weather as I drove. The clouds to the east were becoming increasingly darker. The occasional cumulus were becoming more numerous and producing rain shafts that barely reached the ground. Most of the rain was evaporating due to the dry air.
After an hour, the cloud deck had moved in. There was a constant drizzle that changed from heavy to just a few small drops; almost as if there was no rain at all. The winds were increasing, although they were far from anything that could be considered threatening. Weather reports had the sustained winds of Lee at 60 mph, but that was probably in a narrow area on the northeast edge of the eye. Since I was over 100 miles from the eye, the winds couldn't even be described as tropical storm force.
I looked at the radar at noon. Lee hadn't moved much, if at all. The rain bands were increasing on the west side, so now the precipitation varied between drizzle and rain. The clouds had now lowered to thick, low stratus racing overhead.
Now, it's a little after 8:00 pm and nothing has changed in the last 5 hours, except Lee has moved a few miles northwest and the rain band are now stretching into a large section of Southeast, Texas, including the Houston Metroplex.
Lee is forecast to move little over the next 24 hours, so the weather will not change - which is good. The only way it could be better is if Lee scoots off to the west and gives the rest of Texas some rain. It's needed and it's time for some relief from the drought.
Outside, it was in the mid 70's, which can only be described as pleasant. It's been in the lower 80's with high humidities. Since Lee was bringing drier air from the drought stricken areas, the influx of rain cooled dry air around the system made it almost seem like Fall.
There were heavy clouds to the east, but overhead there were only a few fast moving, wispy cumulus that had were producing an occasional mist. The wind was brisk, with gusts to around 25 mph. Mostly, the sky was clear and a deep blue.
I had some errands to run, so I looked at the weather as I drove. The clouds to the east were becoming increasingly darker. The occasional cumulus were becoming more numerous and producing rain shafts that barely reached the ground. Most of the rain was evaporating due to the dry air.
After an hour, the cloud deck had moved in. There was a constant drizzle that changed from heavy to just a few small drops; almost as if there was no rain at all. The winds were increasing, although they were far from anything that could be considered threatening. Weather reports had the sustained winds of Lee at 60 mph, but that was probably in a narrow area on the northeast edge of the eye. Since I was over 100 miles from the eye, the winds couldn't even be described as tropical storm force.
I looked at the radar at noon. Lee hadn't moved much, if at all. The rain bands were increasing on the west side, so now the precipitation varied between drizzle and rain. The clouds had now lowered to thick, low stratus racing overhead.
Now, it's a little after 8:00 pm and nothing has changed in the last 5 hours, except Lee has moved a few miles northwest and the rain band are now stretching into a large section of Southeast, Texas, including the Houston Metroplex.
Lee is forecast to move little over the next 24 hours, so the weather will not change - which is good. The only way it could be better is if Lee scoots off to the west and gives the rest of Texas some rain. It's needed and it's time for some relief from the drought.
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Computers
I've used computers since the mid '80's. At that time, things were simpler, although there were few bells and whistles, which is why I'm posting.
I'm tired of operatings systems that have to be tweaked, protected, changed, refined and constantly require my attention or they dump the memory and give the blue screen of death. Update my drivers? Why? It's obvious the last drivers are the cause of the wreck. Why should I trust you to choose the replacements?
Also, I'm tired of printers that won't work unless you install software that constantly causes problems with the operating system. I don't need to collate, flip, embelish, add text, check for updates, take polls, give my opinion or find spam in my email that tells me I'm part of the team and should be proud of owning such a fine product. Yes, you can check my computer to see what kind of printer I have. Maybe one day you'll be a little more helpful than telling me what I can see is written on the side of my printer.
I guess I'm behind the times. I should be salivating over the opportunity of a new computer, with more bells and whistles, more memory, a larger harddrive and 83 USB ports. Unforunately, I'm not interested. Leave me alone and quit screwing with my system.
I'm tired of operatings systems that have to be tweaked, protected, changed, refined and constantly require my attention or they dump the memory and give the blue screen of death. Update my drivers? Why? It's obvious the last drivers are the cause of the wreck. Why should I trust you to choose the replacements?
Also, I'm tired of printers that won't work unless you install software that constantly causes problems with the operating system. I don't need to collate, flip, embelish, add text, check for updates, take polls, give my opinion or find spam in my email that tells me I'm part of the team and should be proud of owning such a fine product. Yes, you can check my computer to see what kind of printer I have. Maybe one day you'll be a little more helpful than telling me what I can see is written on the side of my printer.
I guess I'm behind the times. I should be salivating over the opportunity of a new computer, with more bells and whistles, more memory, a larger harddrive and 83 USB ports. Unforunately, I'm not interested. Leave me alone and quit screwing with my system.
Watching the Gulf
Late summer around here usually brings some changes in the weather. From the meteorological standpoint, the lessening of daylight, accumulation of heat and changes in the atmosphere bring a new pattern. If an upper level high pressure ridge is in place, it starts to move, or weakens. With lack of steering currents, this can be the right ingredients for a tropical system.
Today, we have a massive system of radars, sounding instruments, satellites and aircraft to constantly observe the weather. Supercomputers can analyze past data, compare it to present data, and forecast changes in the weather. The data can be used to prepare for weather changes, or warn of the possible track of a hurricane. The past was much different.
Judging from what I've experienced and recollections of old timers, it's possible many people in the past were never exposed to a major hurricane. Otherwise, there was no memory to use for guidance. The changes in the weather wouldn't be noticed, because they were inconsequential in the mind of the observer without experience. I'm sure many died because they didn't recognize the warning signs. They casually went about their lives until it was too late. What should have alerted and instigated preperation was missed due to ignorance.
So what are the warning signs? I can explain by describing the weather I experienced over the last week and today.
Earlier in the week, the atmosphere was clear. There was no haze, few clouds and it was blistering hot. Temperatures reached over 100 degrees in the shade. The morning breeze was comparatively cool and was the typical migration of colder air to the warmer air in the Gulf. With an upper level ridge in place, the usual nocturnal thunderstorms, or sea breeze front were absent.
Yesterday, and this morning, there was a ground fog and a light wind from the east. It was clear yesterday afternoon and there was a fairly strong breeze from the southeast. Today, it was just as windy, but there was a heavy haze. This is the point where I really start noticing what the weather is doing.
The next noticable change will be in the clarity of the atmosphere. The only way the haze will leave is if high pressure allows a wind to push it away, or if the atmosphere starts lifting. If it's high pressure, the winds will lighten and the return of a southerly afternoon breeze will occur. If it's the lifting of the atmosphere, that means low pressure is forming, or approaching. Low pressure means some kind of tropical critter, whether a low pressure wave or a major hurricane.
The haze is still here, but I'm expecting it to lift and something to come from the Gulf. If it's a low pressure wave, there will be towering cumulus clouds, with imbeded thunderstorms in the next few days. It will start raining and, depending on how fast it moves, it could rain for days.
If it's something more, there will be a strengthening of the wind from the east, low scud clouds will appear in the clearing atmosphere and, eventually, a storm will arrive. Whether it hits directly, or lands somewhere else will only be known when it happens. It can be roughly gauged by the direction of the wind. A shift to the north means it's to the east. If the shift is to the south, the storm is moving to the west. A continuing east wind, with an increase in velocity, signifies a direct hit.
Until then, I'm watching the Gulf. So far the wind is staying from the east and it's still hazy. The weather wizards are forecasting something forming in the Gulf. I hope we don't get a hurricane.
Update 3:58 pm - winds are shifting to the northeast. This would put the center of a circulation to the southeast.
Today, we have a massive system of radars, sounding instruments, satellites and aircraft to constantly observe the weather. Supercomputers can analyze past data, compare it to present data, and forecast changes in the weather. The data can be used to prepare for weather changes, or warn of the possible track of a hurricane. The past was much different.
Judging from what I've experienced and recollections of old timers, it's possible many people in the past were never exposed to a major hurricane. Otherwise, there was no memory to use for guidance. The changes in the weather wouldn't be noticed, because they were inconsequential in the mind of the observer without experience. I'm sure many died because they didn't recognize the warning signs. They casually went about their lives until it was too late. What should have alerted and instigated preperation was missed due to ignorance.
So what are the warning signs? I can explain by describing the weather I experienced over the last week and today.
Earlier in the week, the atmosphere was clear. There was no haze, few clouds and it was blistering hot. Temperatures reached over 100 degrees in the shade. The morning breeze was comparatively cool and was the typical migration of colder air to the warmer air in the Gulf. With an upper level ridge in place, the usual nocturnal thunderstorms, or sea breeze front were absent.
Yesterday, and this morning, there was a ground fog and a light wind from the east. It was clear yesterday afternoon and there was a fairly strong breeze from the southeast. Today, it was just as windy, but there was a heavy haze. This is the point where I really start noticing what the weather is doing.
The next noticable change will be in the clarity of the atmosphere. The only way the haze will leave is if high pressure allows a wind to push it away, or if the atmosphere starts lifting. If it's high pressure, the winds will lighten and the return of a southerly afternoon breeze will occur. If it's the lifting of the atmosphere, that means low pressure is forming, or approaching. Low pressure means some kind of tropical critter, whether a low pressure wave or a major hurricane.
The haze is still here, but I'm expecting it to lift and something to come from the Gulf. If it's a low pressure wave, there will be towering cumulus clouds, with imbeded thunderstorms in the next few days. It will start raining and, depending on how fast it moves, it could rain for days.
If it's something more, there will be a strengthening of the wind from the east, low scud clouds will appear in the clearing atmosphere and, eventually, a storm will arrive. Whether it hits directly, or lands somewhere else will only be known when it happens. It can be roughly gauged by the direction of the wind. A shift to the north means it's to the east. If the shift is to the south, the storm is moving to the west. A continuing east wind, with an increase in velocity, signifies a direct hit.
Until then, I'm watching the Gulf. So far the wind is staying from the east and it's still hazy. The weather wizards are forecasting something forming in the Gulf. I hope we don't get a hurricane.
Update 3:58 pm - winds are shifting to the northeast. This would put the center of a circulation to the southeast.
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