Salivating Weather Forecasters

There's a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Gulf of America. The folks at NOAA are forecasting the system will change from a northwesterly track to a westerly track. With close proximity to land, and shear, they are forecasting a reduction in tropical storm strength over the next few days, and most of the rain south of the system....if it doesn't degrade into a trough. The final track, at this time, will take it along the coast to Southeast Texas, where it will come ashore and cross Texas. 

The NOAA folks summarize all of this is a text forecast advisory, and it can be read in about a minute. The Weather Channel folks take about 48 hours to show a summary of all the model tracks, pay high salaries for their meteorologists to pontificate, and have entire crews on different beaches to interview those that want to have their faces on television. It's expensive, and they're using resources provided by NOAA, but there's money to be made. It's weather porn, and leads to experts that not only help increase the anxiety, they continue it on their social media posts. If you pay close enough attention, you'll realize you not only need to panic, you need to go spend close to a thousand at Walmart and gather supplies you'll eventually throw away in January.

Tropical Deluge

 I poured almost two inches from the rain gauge the day before yesterday. This morning, I poured almost four inches of rain from the gauge. It's still raining, and it's forecast to continue for the next two days. 

There's a low pressure area around Brownsville, moving to the east, and may go into the Gulf. It's not forecast to develop, but could, and is guaranteed to lead to torrential rains along the coast, along with inland counties near the coast. We'll get enough of the rain to some minor flooding, and a saturated yard. The road in may flood, but we're ready. 

Almost a Derecho

I woke this morning to what sounded like a giant kicking the side of my home. I had a pretty good idea what it was, since the weather folks stated a line of thunderstorm would arrive near sunrise. They were right. It was 4:00 am, but the storms were much subdued from anticipated. The time was a big factor, since the lack of daytime heating reduced their strength. Still, within minutes, the electricity went off, and the little rechargeable flashlight I keep next to my bed went out before I could reach the larger flashlight I keep in the kitchen. I crept into the kitchen, felt around for the flashlight, and was rewarded with sight once again. It gets real dark in the boonies without electricity.

The wind was howling, and the rain was pounding the side of the house. My dog was panicking, and regardless of my words of consolation, he stared at me with the look I should be doing something to make it stop. Oddly, there was little lightning, and the thunder was low in the distance. 

The heaviest of the showers didn't last but a few minutes, but the radar on my cell-phone indicated it would last for hours. So, I went back to bed. My wife, my dog, and I, soon fell back asleep. 

The sound of my printer self-checking woke me at 9:00 am. My dog soon needed to go outside, so I let him into the yard. Porch furniture was blown over, and there are a multitude of small branches scattered around the trees. My rain gauge showed only two inches of rain fell, so the road out of the neighborhood will still be passable.

Radar is showing another band of shower approaching from the west. It's looking like most of the rain will pass to the south, and with the air still unsettled by the past thunderstorms, it's likely the weather won't be so bad. I'll take that. We've had enough rain, and the grass doesn't wait for the yard to dry.

Close....But Not Quite

Weather folks forecast freezing rain, and a low temperature of around 26 for my location for last night. We reached 32.7, which prevented the constant drizzle, and rain, from freezing. Thunderstorms were surprising, and my little dog didn't dally at 4:00 this morning to take care of an urgent need. He didn't even hesitate on the porch, ran into the yard, took care of his business, and beat me back to the door. He quickly found his way under a blanket, sighed deeply, and returned to his early slumber. 

Tonight the forecast is a low of 20 degrees, with clearing skies. It might reach that, but that depends on whether the cloud cover breaks. If it hangs on into the early morning hours, we'll reach the middle twenties, and avoid the deeper cold. 

Local schools, and government organizations, will not be open tomorrow. It's probably a wise choice, although the wind has dried the bridges, and the possibility of icy bridges is an unwarranted concern. Still, it is, what it is, and schools will have to have a makeup day, which they usually have in their schedules. We'll freeze at night, but the days will be above freezing. This will last for much of the coming week, but according to the weather folks, next weekend might bring a Canadian air mass, which can lead to some frozen precipitation. We'll see, and I hope it doesn't get that cold. 

I have to add we didn't reach the 38 degrees as forecast, and now at 4:00 pm, the temperature is at 32 degrees, and the freeze has started.

Morning Thunder

 The forecasters stated there was a real small chance of thunderstorms with the approaching arctic air mass. They were right, and the thunder woke me before my dog had a chance. I tried to get him to go and take care of his morning business, but after walking onto the porch, and observing the rain, he hesitated, until a clap of thunder led him wanting to go back in. Even with the rain slowing down, I couldn't get him out of the house. He finally went out after the rain stopped, hurried his business, and quickly was back in for his morning meal. 

It was 48 degrees at the time, now it's 42 degrees, the wind is strong from the north, and the forecast is for the temperature to drop to below freezing sometime during the night. The big question is how much of the precipitation will freeze before the rain ends. It's looking like it won't be much, and there is a good chance tomorrow a good portion of the day will be above freezing. That will end tomorrow night, and the temperature will drop to the mid-twenties, which is a better temperature than originally forecast. We'll see, but with the strong effort by our electric utility company over the summer months, the nuisance trees now gone from around the lines will not interrupt our power. I hope their efforts were successful.

Monday night is supposed to be clear, with a temperature in the teens. Schools will probably start late to allow any ice on bridges to melt. It's looking much better than the heavy ice storm we had in the late nineties. That one brought down major power lines, and left us without electricity for a week. 

Dreary, Wet and Cold

Up to a few days ago, we had weather that was the wonderful balance between Summer and Winter. Mild temperatures kept it from getting above eighty, or below the mid-fifties. No rain, pleasant sun, and dry. That's over for now. 

The day before yesterday brought thunderstorms at night, and 5 1/2 inches of rain. Yesterday it was mostly cloudy and the temperature didn't get above the mid-fifties. Today it started raining before sunrise, and at 10:30 tonight, there's still a misting rain. The temperature never reached past 45 degrees, which made the nasty weather worse. 

Tomorrow is supposed to allow clearing, but more rain is forecast starting Wednesday night and last into the weekend. At least it's not supposed to freeze, but miserable weather is expected. 

All together we've had around 8 inches of rain, which will saturate the ground. Until Spring arrives, the ground will be soft, and venturing off pavement can lead to calling a wrecker. Hopefully, we won't get much freezing weather, or any frozen precipitation. Down here, that's always a recipe for shutting most everything down, too many car wrecks, and the dreaded times without electricity.

The Power of Water

My wife found this photo on the internet. It's an example of how moving water has power that is only equaled by the most powerful of hydraulic machines. The guardrail, which was attached to a post, was twisted like a rubber band when the water spun the post around the attachment point. 

I've placed this type of rail. The rail at the far left is called a Thrie-Beam bridge connection. It's attached to the concrete rail barely seen on the far left. Immediately after the attachment, there are four wood posts closely placed on 18 inch centers, and after that, the next post is 6 feet, 3 inches from the last post in the configuration. You can see where the post was pulled from the concrete mow strip, spun until it finally was torn away, and the rail was twisted in the process. 

This is the destruction humans faced when the flood waters on the Guadalupe tore through the flood basin. Such force doesn't leave much, when people are caught in the flood. Remains may never be found since there may not be any to be found. 

God rest their souls.

Texas Hill Country Flooding

I've been to many places in the Texas Hill Country. The rivers can be dry for months, and when the heavy rains hit, they can rise extraordinarily fast. The current reports on the Guadalupe River are it rose 28 feet in 45 minutes. That's over 7 inches per minute. With that rise, in 3 minutes the rushing water will take you off your feet, and if you're lucky, there something to climb on to escape. Waiting can lead to an almost certain death, and if you're caught off guard, there is no escape. 

Unfortunately, these types of floods can't be predicted, and old timers will seek higher ground, even when the heavy shower isn't overhead. To make things worse, the rivers are clear, inviting places to surround with camps. One was inundated, many are not accounted for, and may not be found for days. 

A Stillness I May Never Experience Again

The snow was a thrill for the children today, which allowed their parents to allow their childhood fascination to reappear for an afternoon. Improvised sleds were pulled behind motorized vehicles, and snowballs were a constant reminder of watching your back. 

One great niece, when I noticed she was just sitting, replied with a quick "no" when I asked: "You don't like cold weather"? I ushered her to the fire pit, told her her Pa-Pa was not using his chair, and she sat to warm her hands. I'm thinking there may be more to her morose feeling than just the cold. She's the child of a couple that is going through some custody adjustments, and her mother is notorious for attempting to turn he daughter against her father that has possessive custody. A mediation is scheduled for Friday, and if my assessment of her mother is correct, she's been working hard to muddy the water with outright lies. Such things are hard on children at eight years of age. Someone with wisdom wouldn't subject their child to an attempt to get them to choose sides when they are unable to process the entire problem. I don't see that wisdom, and the petty, vicious actions of the past only make me wish her custody would end. 

We did have somewhat of a thaw late in the afternoon. This offered me an opportunity to sweep any snow left on the steps, which allowed the thin layer of water to dry. The guaranteed freeze near dark would make them treacherous for a trip down the steps. They dried before the temperature dropped below freezing. This will allow our little dog access to the spot where I removed snow in the yard, which is till deep in snow where I haven't shoveled it away. Accomplishing his business is tough when squatting puts his hind end in the piled snow. I had to carry him out in the yard for his first effort this morning, which left him somewhat panicky. He didn't quite know what to think of the snow, would run into it only to return again, and finally found a spot to complete his business. He's now an old pro. He doesn't dally like on pleasant mornings. 

I went to bed at 6:00 pm with the knowledge I'd awake in a few hours. I woke at 10:00 pm, looked at the temperature, and decided to I'd mostly stay awake the rest of tonight. It was 21 degrees at the time. In 2 hours, it fell to 17. We'll be near single digits by sunrise, and regardless of my efforts to prevent frozen pipes, I will still run some water off, and on, during the night to guarantee that water will be available. The well house is sufficiently warm, but I'm wary. I wouldn't be able to do anything but cat-nap anyway, so I'll be vigilant until it is above freezing tomorrow. Hopefully, all my preparations were successful.

Outside, it was a dead-still winter wonderland. The snow was still thick. The only sound to be heard was an occasional hoot of an owl, and the snow scintillated like diamonds in the light from a flashlight. The aroma of wood smoke was heavy, and the wind was calm,. The crunch of the snow was loud as I walked through the yard and followed some small tracks I assume were from a bird. They led me to where they must have flown away, since they ended abruptly. The sky was clear, Orion was overhead, and the Big Dipper was rising in the east. It wasn't as clear as I thought it would be. There was a haziness to the air, which I think is probably from the cold air reacting to the moisture available at sunset.

The next few days will bring freezing temperatures at night, but nights will soon be warmer than freezing again. Weather forecasters are calling for high rain chances this weekend. We won't need the rain. The melting snow will keep the ground saturated for days, and any rainfall will immediately fill the outfalls. 

Locally, the schools, and government offices, will be closed. Many businesses will do the same to prevent their employees from driving on what are definitely treacherous roads. The snow melted into a slush, which hadn't dried at dark. I'm sure there is black ice to be found, and bridges without sand are a skating rink.

Maybe a Record

It started snowing around midnight. Before that, there was some light sleet, which didn't stick, but was so light it didn't create ice, when the temperature dropped below freezing. I stayed up to about 2:00 am, and awoke at 5:00 am. The snow falling was heavy, and according to my rain gauge, somewhere around 3 inches of snow already fell. That's something that only happens a few times in a lifetime in this area. 

When I was about 5 years old, we had heavy snow like this. I don't remember playing in the snow, but photos showed I did, and the snow was piled in drifts up next to our house. Another snow happened again during my last year in high school, but it wasn't this heavy, although it was probably around 2 inches. 

The children will love this. If they stay in this area for the rest of their lives, they may get another opportunity like this, but if things stay the same, they may be adults when it happens again...if ever. 

So, I'm again reminded how I'm not prepared for snow. I have no snow shovel, so the steps were swept of the heavy snow, and the continuing light snow is keeping them dusted. My boots will stay by the door, after removing them when I enter. The mat will be damp, but sweeping off my boots should keep it from being soaked. 

I don't think my dog will like the change, and wonder if I'll have to pick him up, place him in the yard, and hope his need to take care of his business will overrule his effort to seek the warmth of the house. Bless his little heart. He won't have any idea what happened, and will probably not like this at all.

Local schools, and government offices, will be closed today, which is good. Those that can drive in snow is a rarity here, and even though there is no black ice on anything at this time, tomorrow morning will bring a multitude of wrecks due to the bridges freezing tonight after the snow that melts today wets the decks. Freeways will probably have sanded bridges, but the rural bridges will not have the same treatment. Those venturing out may find it was a mistake to try to go to work.

Gully Washer

We've were shy of rain over the last two month, which prompted a burn ban. With about 4 inches over the last week two weeks, they lifted the ban, which allowed many to burn their accumulations of pine needles and deadfall. Last night, the rain started, and not only did it become heavy, radar showed a group of showers moving slowly, and more developing right behind. Other than one glitch with the electricity, the heavy rain was the only problem. 

This morning, I went on the porch to find light rain falling. Checking my rain gauge, I found it was topped, and have no idea how much rain fell past six inches. I do know we're under a flash flood warning, and although I haven't yet checked, the road into the neighborhood probably is flooded. 

So, the biggest change in season is rain. We haven't had much of any cool weather. In fact, we've had lows in the upper sixties, and highs in the upper eighties for the last two weeks. The front that prompted the rain is supposed to stall, and more rain is forecast for today. We don't need it, but at least the entire area hasn't had so much rain. Hopefully the water drains off quickly, and the tropical system doesn't impede the drainage with high tides.

Another Hurricane

Hurricane Milton is the next storm to threaten the U.S. mainland. The question is how strong it will be at landfall. That, and how it will affect the area in Florida where it is expected to make landfall. 

I looked at the Tampa area elevations. Surprisingly, like many sections of the Florida Coast, elevations way above any surge are found near the coast. Anything 20 feet, or above, in elevations will not be inundated by a storm surge, and if impacted by a hurricane in the last few years, wind damage will be much lower than an area not impacted for decades. 

So, there is a lot of doom and gloom, which is what some of the meteorologists are paid to peddle, but I have a feeling those in Florida know the drill, most will leave, newer structures have been built for hurricane force winds, and the state forces are will prepared to offer help after the passage of the storm. Hopefully, as it approaches, the wind lessens, a lower number hurricane comes ashore, and those that were just impacted by Helene are not severely impacted by the next storm. 

More of the Same

I was looking at the National Hurricane Center 7 day forecast. Something in the Caribbean is anticipated to form, and will enter the Gulf of Mexico. At this time of the year, with the change in weather patterns, such systems are more likely to travel to the Eastern Gulf, which will lead to another storm affecting Florida. They don't need it, and the states just inundated with so much rain don't need it either. Maybe it will fizzle out, and nobody is affected.  

Sliding to the East

 On Saturday, when the tropical system in the Gulf was first being modeled, we were nearly dead center of the cone. Yesterday, the cone was slipping to the east, and we were on the left side of the cone. Today, we're out of the cone, and the newest forecast track of the center is somewhere near Vermillion Bay in Louisiana. That's good news for us, but New Orleans will be on the dirty side of the storm; whatever it does. It may be a hurricane, but some forecast are saying it will be only a tropical storm at landfall. Either way, there will be a surge, lots of rain on the east side of the center, and those on the coast will see some type of storm surge. Hopefully, it moves fast, and the damage is minimal compared to a storm that sits on the coast.

Beryl Was Closer Than I Like

 After coming ashore, and the rain bands starting arriving, Beryl was a strong tropical storm in my neck of the woods. The wind reached at least 40 mph, with gusts to 60. Torrential rain would fall, we'd get a short respite, and it would come again. The heavy rain finally stopped around 2:00 pm, but the wind was still blowing around 30 with gusts up to 50. Over the next few hours, wind gradually lowered, the rain left and the sky started clearing. 

We lost power twice. The first time lasted about an hour. After it went out again, it stayed off to around 6:45 pm. It's now on, the house is cooling, and if you didn't notice the downed trees, broken branches, and leaf debris on the roads, you wouldn't know a storm had passed. 

Hopefully this is the last we'll see of this type of weather this season. One time is one too many, and should last a lifetime. Houston, and to the southwest, received the brunt of the storm. Millions have no electricity, and tomorrow is supposed to hot, with high humidity.

Beryl Took A Closer Path

Beryl became a category 1 hurricane before landfall near Matagorda, Texas. I've been there. It's on the Gulf Coast, the Colorado River flows next to the road to the beach, and it's not very high above sea level. If I had to guess, much of it was inundated by the surge, and it's not a pleasant place to be this morning. 

Locally, the wind is a steady 25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph. Rain is constant, although the heavier bands seem to be over in Houston. The eye at 6:40 am is over Bay City, which is about 80 miles southwest of Houston. At the current path, the eye will be closer to Houston in a few hours, and the wind will add problems beside the torrential rain. 

I'm judging the center of the storm will stay about 120 miles away from my location, and the rain bands have the potential to cause some heavy rain during the day. How much is a guess, but it could be up to 10 inches if the bands train over my area. 

The eye at 2:00 am wasn't as developed as it now. It's heading toward IH-10. Driving between Houston, and San Antonio will be treacherous, and I wouldn't recommend driving it to anyone. 

That's the way it goes. Initial forecast can be off by hundreds of miles, and what looks as though it will only lead to a few showers leads to day of really bad weather. At least it wasn't a direct hit to the south. 

Watching Beryl

 According to the weather forecasters, Beryl will come ashore somewhere around the Texas/Mexico border, and meander northeastward. That will bring us some rain, and it may be more than we want. Time will tell, but we're ready, if the road floods, and have generators, if the power goes off. Padre Island vacations will be shortened, and the wiser folks will leave by tomorrow evening.

It Was a Surprise

 This morning, it was like yesterday morning. Hot, humid and uncomfortable. It was another day to plan the day by staying out of the afternoon heat. Yesterday, the heat index was 120 and it felt it. It was miserable, and to add insult to injury, when if finally cooled in the evening, the gnats chased me in within minutes. They were swarming, and regardless of repellent, they still would fly in my eyes, into my ears, and up my nose 

The gnats were still bad this morning, but the forecasters hinted we might get some rain. They were right, except the rain was part of a severe thunderstorm complex from the north. The worst went around us, but the winds was still gusting to what I determined was around 50 mph, which tore small branches from trees. 

I'm thinking the gnats will be gone for awhile. That kind of wind, with torrential rain, wipes them out, which is good. I'll count the weather as a blessing, and enjoy the porch during what will be a cool evening.

What You Don't See

 A local sheriff's department is issuing a warning to boaters about the result of the flooding in the area. Debris, some being huge trees, may be right under the surface, or not seen in the chop caused by the wind. It's a good warning, since many don't realize what can be in the water. 

After Hurricane Rita, the local forests were exposed to winds not seen in many decades. Deadfalls were sometimes almost unimaginable, and when torrential rains caused floods the nest Spring, the waters was high enough to float complete large trees into the waterways. With two large rivers merging into the ship channel, I watched some of these floating hazards pass by when I worked in a local industrial facility adjacent to the channel. Some of the trees looked large enough to damage a ship's propeller. 

The floods clean away the debris in the forests. With the last severe drought last Summer, there is plenty of new deadfall to wash away. This will last for weeks, if not months, and some boaters will find their lack of attention leads to hoping someone will pass by to tow them back to the dock.

Newspaper Lightning

It all started around 10:30 last night. The power went off, which woke me, so I went outside to observe the weather.

I call it "newspaper lightning". The flashes are so often, you can read a newspaper. It happens rarely here, but it always signifies a weather event with strong thunderstorms.

There were storms all around, but we weren't having any rain. Radar showed a severe storm to the west, which was moving to the northeast. This meant it would miss us, so I went back to bed.

Thunder, heavy rain, and strong winds woke me at 12:30. Looking out the window only revealed heavy rain between the flashes of lightning. I rose, and started pacing the floor, while my wife did the same.

My wife used her flashlight to see out on the front porch. She commented about the roll up shade being in tatters, and soon exclaimed: "It's all over the yard." The wind picked at the shade ( which was rolled up and tied) and spread it like confetti into the yard.

It took about an hour for the storms to move on. With the end of the strong wind, I ventured onto the porch.

The rain gauge was at the top, so I knew at least five inches fell in the brief heavy rain. That meant the road to my house might be flooded, and going to work might be a problem.

I eventually went back to bed, only to be wakened at 5:00 am by the power returning. Looking out the window revealed a steady rain, so I prepared to leave for work.

I drove to the point where the road floods, and decided to return home. The half mile stretch was like a lake, and I couldn't see the depth.

So, now I'll wait until daylight to see how bad the road is flooded, and start reading the local news about storm damage. Hopefully, the weather forecasters are wrong about this all happening again this evening. I think we've had enough.