In Case You've Wondered

My blog is where my wandering thoughts are interspersed with stuff I made up. So, if while reading you find yourself confused about the context, don't feel alone. I get confused, too.

If you're here for the stories, I started another blog: scratchingforchange.blogspot.com

One other thing: sometimes I write words you refuse to use in front of children, or polite company, unless you have a flat tire, or hit your thumb with a hammer.

I don't use them to offend; I use them to embellish.

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Tuesday, August 15, 2023

My Opinion

 I've been reading, watching, and thinking about the fire in Lahaina. There are conspiracy theories of intentional efforts including an energy weapon being used by nefarious sources. After looking at current Google Earth photos, watching the videos, and analyzing what I've observed, the fire became out of control due to the following:

- The grass in many areas was not only uncut, it was dead from drought. 

- The buildings were closely built to other buildings and many were attached. 

- The winds were exceptionally high, with observed gusts above fifty miles per hour. 

- Electrical transmission lines were supported on poles leaning, or broken at the bottom. 

What I think happened was the high winds toppled electric poles, and the arcing wires started multiple fires. As the fires traveled, they became larger, the high wind added a blow-torch effect and the temperatures were well above one thousand degrees. When buildings became involved, the concentrated areas of fuel, with hydrocarbon building materials, the fires became large enough to consume structures in a matter of seconds. The fires consumed multiple acres of developed land in less than an hour, and the cars stuck in traffic only increased the conflagration. The supposed flashes seen in videos of an "energy weapon" were only transformer exploding from being grounded or the intense heat. The fact that some trees survived is not unusual, since the fire traveled faster than the amount of time for the healthy trees to be consumed. I've seen this before in a forest where the ground cover burned, but the trees were only scorched, and survived. 

So, the fire was a culmination of poor efforts to keep underbrush from reaching dangerous levels in drought, building codes were not sufficient to slow fires from spreading, and if I had to guess, much of the land values demanded people only bought small sections and they were filled with structures and personal items. With the added danger of energized power lines on poorly maintained poles, the conditions were perfect for what happened. 

That's my opinion, and I'm betting I'm pretty close to right. Is there anyone to blame? Not really, unless you want to blame acceptance of ridiculous environmental regulations, poor municipal management and poor judgement in allowing such things to accumulate. It was avoidable, but too many people weren't paying attention. 

6 comments:

  1. Good analysis, To go conspiratorial, TPTB may have been more interested in the buildings burning, replacement being out of reach for the owners, but not for the wealthy.

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  2. yeah, it hasn't helped that blackrock has reportedly swooped in making big offers on the burned out land.

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  3. The Bolivar Peninsula in Galveston County Texas was filled with cabins built by middle class individuals. Some had served multiple generations and were various types of construction not designed for hurricanes. Hurricane Ike wiped most of the peninsula clean, which left real estate ripe for investors, since anything built would have high value. Land was sold cheap, since many didn't have insurance, or the money to rebuild. New codes, and the substantial structures that allow insurance, make construction way out of the reach of the middle class. Things changed tremendously, and the charm of the old was gone forever.

    I think Lahaina will be much of the same, except the new construction will only allow the most wealthy to enjoy the beautiful area.

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  4. Rational thinking is above the mental capacity of many people these days. The average IQ in America has dropped precipitously over the past half century and that decline shows no sign of stopping. It's far easier to buy into some bizarre and specious fiction than to try and grasp and understand the facts. We are doomed as a society and probably as a species.

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  5. But BlackRock (or someone like BlackRock) will end up owning 99% of the place.

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    1. Yes. The real estate value of Hawaii is already high, and Maui beaches bring premium values. At one time, the area was probably considered nearly worthless, except for the sugar industry that died after NAFTA.

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